NVAR September Statistics

The Northern VA Association of Realtors (NVAR) has published September's housing market statistics. The real story is in what the data might be pointing to, but first this month's statistics and charts.

NVAR September Market Statistics

Monthly Inventory v. Monthly Home Sales since January, 2005

August and September Inventory Since 2006

August and September Home Sales since 2006

Just after the local housing market collapsed at the end of July, 2005, I pulled all of the past inventory and sales numbers and charted them in relation to each other. I was surprised to see that the two lines had intersected each other back in March, 2005. I realized then that had I been paying attention to the relationship of these two numbers a little more carefully, I would not have been so surprised by what happened to the market just four months later. I have been charting these two numbers in relationship to each other ever since.

For the first time since July, 2005, these two lines, instead of running relatively parallel or even moving towards each other at this time of year, are actually diverging. To me, this indicates a local housing market that is on the verge of collapsing again unless one of two things happen (or even both!): 1. Inventory reduces. 2. Buyers start buying again.

From 2001-2003, the number of active listings and the number of homes sold ran relatively parallel to each other. At the end of 2003, the latest real estate boom started and ran through March, 2005. From 2005 through 2009, the number of active listings always started to converge with the number of homes sold at the end of the year...until this year. Take a look at the following yearly charts:

NVAR January Statistics--Now is a great time to sell!

The Northern VA Association of Realtors (NVAR) January statistics are an interesting combination of trends. Medium home sales prices increased 13.75%, days on the market decreased 38%, inventory decreased 24%, and sales ticked up almost 1%, from last January.

The trend that we should also be aware of is how January compares to the last several months where the real estate market was greatly affected by buyers who were trying to take advantage of the expiring tax credit. Beginning in June, the number of monthly sales as a percentage of active listings averaged 26%. That percentage dropped dramatically to 18% in January. Interest rates continue to hover at or below 5%, and for the time being, inventory sits at what is considered a "normal" 6 month supply. The implication of this 18% statistic is that the real estate activity we witnessed last fall was largely fueled by the tax credit.

There is a great window of opportunity to sell right now before the tax credit expires. With low interest rates and the extension of the tax credit, there are buyers eager to buy their first home or take advantage of the move-up tax credit. These buyers do not have much to choose from right now so if you're thinking about selling any time in the next year or so, now is the time to do it! Take advantage of these buyers because the statistics indicate that after the tax credit expires, they may not exist.

NVAR Real Estate Market Trend

 

NVAR Active Listings

 

NVAR Homes Sold

NVAR December Statistics

While inventory continues to shrink, it would appear that the impending expiration of the First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit pulled demand forward as buyers tried to settle before the end of November. For the first time in 9 years, the number of homes sold went down from November to December.

Source: NVAR

NVAR October Statistics

The Northern VA Association of Realtors has published its market statistics for October, 2009. There are a couple of things that I find significant about these numbers:

1. For the first time since the bubble burst, the number of Active Listings is less this October than in October 2005. Until now, Active Listings have exceeded their 2005 equivalent each month.

2. Homes Sold as a percentage of Active Listings has finally hit 20% or more in the last several months. For all of 2006, 2007, and 2008, this percentage has been well below 20%.

August and September Active Listings

Following record sales prices driven by low inventory and historically high buyer demand in July, 2005, the real estate market in Northern VA officially headed for a cliff in August, 2005. By keeping track of the numbers of homes sold in relation to the number of active listings each month, we can better understand where the real estate market is headed.

August and September Homes Sold

Following record sales prices driven by low inventory and historically high buyer demand in July, 2005, the real estate market in Northern VA officially headed for a cliff in August, 2005. By keeping track of the numbers of homes sold in relation to the number of active listings each month, we can better understand where the real estate market is headed.

NVAR September Statistics

Each month, the Northern VA Association of Realtors (NVAR) publishes the lastest home sales statistics. Below is a chart tracking the relationship between Active Listings and Homes Sold each month.