Potential Positive Changes to Current Factors

The green leaves may have turned brown and fallen to the ground, but I am reading about all sorts of "green shoots" today that we should all be paying attention to. Just remember, these are like the green shoots of crocus--sometimes they emerge during momentary thaws in the winter, only to retreat again until spring officially arrives.

If you read my blog post about The Future of the Real Estate Market and Why, then you know that there are several factors that are pointing to downturn in the real estate market next year. Two of those factors, unemployment and the effect that has on mortgage payment delinquencies, and the likely increase in mortgage interest rates when the MBS Buyback Program expires, are showing some positive signs today.

TBD

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NVAR October Statistics

The Northern VA Association of Realtors has published its market statistics for October, 2009. There are a couple of things that I find significant about these numbers:

1. For the first time since the bubble burst, the number of Active Listings is less this October than in October 2005. Until now, Active Listings have exceeded their 2005 equivalent each month.

2. Homes Sold as a percentage of Active Listings has finally hit 20% or more in the last several months. For all of 2006, 2007, and 2008, this percentage has been well below 20%.

The Future of the Real Estate Market and Why

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) published their latest statistics last week that indicated pending home sales are on the rise for the eighth straight month. This, along with a decrease in inventory, has prompted many to declare that the housing market is stabilizing, and the bottom has been seen. It is true that there has been a surge in buying activity in the last several months, and it is true that inventory has been decreasing over the last several months, but the reasons these two conditions exist are not because the real estate market is stabilizing...yet.

What would you say if it was your daughter?

It was the question I always dreaded as a young girl when my dad would talk to me. In an effort to get me to think, he would ask me, "What would you say if it was your daughter?" Oh man...I hated that question!

Today, it's the question that drives my business. I was in a position to help my parents navigate the sale of property in another state last year. My knowledge of sale numbers and statistics as well as foreclosure filings and economic forecasts were invaluable in helping my parents make wise decisions. Each time I communicate with my clients, I ask myself, "What would I say if it was my mom and dad?"

...and we'll throw in a free trip to Disney World!

The last couple of months have been hard on buyers who are trying to find the home of their dreams before the tax credit expires and becomes the stuff of dreams. As I type this, a tax credit extension/expansion appears imminent, but leading up to this week, the under $400,000 market in Northern VA has been crazy. Buyers are having to put offers on four or five properties, or more, before they finally get a ratified contract.

I would be lying if I said that I haven't been grateful for the burst in activity and the effect that the positive statistics have had on consumer confidence. What concerns me is the feeding frenzy that circumstances have created--low inventory, low interest rates, and a tidal wave of buyers that did not exist four months ago--that mimics the boom market that left the balloon debris we are still trying to sift out of.

August and September Active Listings

Following record sales prices driven by low inventory and historically high buyer demand in July, 2005, the real estate market in Northern VA officially headed for a cliff in August, 2005. By keeping track of the numbers of homes sold in relation to the number of active listings each month, we can better understand where the real estate market is headed.

August and September Homes Sold

Following record sales prices driven by low inventory and historically high buyer demand in July, 2005, the real estate market in Northern VA officially headed for a cliff in August, 2005. By keeping track of the numbers of homes sold in relation to the number of active listings each month, we can better understand where the real estate market is headed.

NVAR September Statistics

Each month, the Northern VA Association of Realtors (NVAR) publishes the lastest home sales statistics. Below is a chart tracking the relationship between Active Listings and Homes Sold each month.